When Walt arrived at Yellow Wood, Helen was already sitting in a booth with a cup of tea, talking to a woman.
“Walt, I’d like you to meet Lauren, the owner here.”
Walt shook her hand and said, “At least you seem to be doing great in this economy.”
Lauren looked around, as if she hadn’t noticed all the people sitting at the tables, working on laptops or chatting. Then she murmured, “Looks can be deceiving. We have had a significant drop in revenue over the last few month. Even though the number of orders had been fairly steady, the amount of each order is only a fraction of what it was before. People who used to order dessert are going without it now. Others are ordering drip coffee instead of cappuccinos.”
Walt was taken aback. “Wow. I guess I was just looking at the obvious signs. Will you be able to survive.”
Lauren gave him a wry smile, “Yes, we’ll get by for now. We’re not paying much rent, and we’ve found other ways to cut costs. But there will be no Hawaiian vacation or anything like that for a while.”
Then she turned to his mentor and said, “Thanks again , Helen. I know I can always get solid advice from you.” Then, with a wave to Walt, she was off.
After Walt ordered some coffee and got settled, Helen asked, “How did your week go, Walt?”
“The good news is that I made few phone calls, and nobody hung up on me.”
Helen’s face lit up while he talked. “You talked to your old clients? Many owners dread doing that, so find any excuse they can to keep from making the call.”
Walt admitted, “That was me, too. But you convinced me of the importance of keeping my current customers. The bad news is that nobody seems to be ready to buy anything right now. I got the same story again and again: They are afraid to make ANY purchases that are not absolutely necessary until they are sure the economy is on the mend.”
Walt’s voice took on a worried tone as he relayed this information. “Several of them told me they don’t have any idea when they will be ready to buy. This quarter? Next quarter? Next year? At this point, I’m not sure I even have a viable business,” he conceded.
Helen nodded, “Then now is a good time to discuss the Survival Secret Number Three:
Survival Secret 3 - Revise Your Business Model
“If you can’t sell products to your current and past clients,” Helen began. “Take a close look at your business model. Is it still valid?”
“My business model? What do you mean by ‘model’?” Walt asked.
“Your business model is the method of doing business, how you add value to customers and create revenue,” Helen explained. “It’s the foundation on which you run your business.”
“Do you mean like a building foundation, what a house sits on?”
“Absolutely correct. If your house is on a solid foundation, it can last for many, many years. If the foundation is weak, some strong winds or flooding can quickly destroy a solid house.”
Walt pondered that analogy. “So if we compare what is going on in the economy around here, that is like strong winds and rains. Although the conditions are only temporary, if my house, my company, is built on a crappy foundation, it could fall apart quickly under the right conditions.”
Going on, he muttered, “I’ve built my company on a crappy foundation.”
Helen peered over the top of her glasses at him, “Don’t jump to conclusions. Let’s see if your business model is strong enough to get through this storm, or whether it needs to be repaired.”
“Or whether I need to completely abandon it and start all over,” he finished for her.
“One thing at a time, Walt. Don’t assume the ship is sinking just because you see a little water below the deck.”
She paused the conversation by taking a sip of her tea. When she felt he was back on the same wavelength she went on, “You started with the idea that certain people would buy your product, that you could deliver that product and you would make money doing it. Is that right?”
“I guess that was my thinking in a nutshell,” Walt replied. “I spent more time on it than that, of course, and even developed a business plan, although I haven’t really looked at it in three years. After I wrote it, I started delivering, and I’ve been too busy to update it.”
“At least you have a business plan,” Helen replied. “Many, perhaps even most, small businesses are started without a written plan at all. Since you have one, it will make this Survival Secret easier to implement. We can use your business plan as the start of the business model you are using now. Take out your plan, dust it off, and look it over.
“It probably has dust on it, all right,” was his response.
“You should be looking at your business model at least every six months or so. That way, you will see flaws in your model or the underlying assumptions before you enter dangerous conditions.”
After another pause, she continued, “It’s a lot like riding a raft down a river with your family.”
That metaphor took Walt by surprise. He mulled it over, then smiled at some memories. “I did go rafting with my family a couple of years ago. And I’m sure ready to do something fun again!”
Helen pointed out, “And it would be fun, if nothing out of the ordinary happened. But what if things aren’t as calm as you thought. What if you did not notice some potential dangers when planning the trip?”
“I was very well prepared that trip, thank you very much,” Walt defended. “I’d checked the maps, read guidebooks, and talked to people who had done it before.”
“I’m sure you did, Walt. But unexpected things still happen. What if a dam had been built since the guidebooks were published. Or perhaps, over the winter a rockslide may have caused rapids to form where it had been calm before. Maybe in the last couple days a rainstorm flooded a tributary, and major whirlpool has developed where enters the river.”
“Well, of course I can’t plan for everything,” Walt argued. “If I didn’t take any chances, I’d never get out of the house.”
“But you were not very prepared for the potential dangers in the business environment.”
“How could I have been? They caught me completely by surprise.”
“Let’s use the rafting example. Your family’s life is in your hands. Do you just go drifting down the river, falling asleep with the gentle splashing of the waves? Or, are you constantly looking ahead for danger?”
“A little of both I guess. If I don’t see any danger ahead, I tend to relax.”
Helen replied, “That’s good. You can relax while the foreseeable future is calm. But every time you go around a bend of that river, you should be looking for conditions that are different than you expected. If you are not being proactive, you won’t see the tell tale signs of danger, ones that should be obvious a mile away.”
“And if I am looking, I can take action early,” Walt was catching on. “I can get to the side of the river before getting to those dangerous conditions. But what if I still have to continue down the river, to get to my destination.”
“You can do it one of two ways: Just keep going to stay on schedule, which could get you tossed around in the rapids, your equipment lost, your leg broken, or worse. Alternatively, keeping your eyes open for changing conditions, you can adjust your schedule and get prepared. Moving to the bank of the river, you can wait and observe. Maybe you can scout out the best route between the rocks. Maybe you could ask others what they know of the best route. You might even find a road nearby which goes around the rapids, so you can finish your leisurely journey. The important point is that you will be entering the dangerous areas much more prepared than if you are caught by surprise.”
“I see what you mean, but I’m not sure I get the connection.”
“In the Midwest, people learn to read the weather. They can tell from the sky whether a tornado is likely to be nearby. In Hawaii, they know how to tell if a tsunami is coming. This is how they survive terrible conditions. In business, you need to be just as vigilant, all the time.”
“And a periodic review of my business model can do that?”
“You betcha! When you put your business plan together, three years ago, you made a lot of assumptions. Now you’ve got working knowledge, so you can replace many of those assumptions with facts, based on your experience.”
“I can do that,” Walt allowed. “I can update it based on all I’ve learned. But the economy has changed a lot since then, so how valid could my revised model be?”
Helen instructed, “Update it with what you know about doing business in this economy. You will be using some facts, then making more assumptions about what you think will be happening in the next couple of months.”
“Ugh. I hate making too many assumptions. You know what they say when you assume,” Walt joked.
“Yes, I do,” Helen said, smiling. “But you need to make assumptions to have some idea what the future will be like. Don’t be overly optimistic, but make assumptions. Of course, you will want to validate those assumptions as soon as you can. At that point, you can update your model again and keep moving forward.”
“What about people who never wrote a business plan, Helen?”
“Have you heard the one: ‘Failing to plan’ is a close cousin to ‘planning to fail.’ It’s like taking a raft down a river without even looking at a good map.”
“But I know a number of successful business owners who claim they’ve never had a business plan,” Walt challenged.
“Some people are very good at observing events and seeing change before most people, even if they aren’t good at writing plans. Others are lucky, for a while. But the world is constantly changing, and luck can change without notice. So I always recommend trying to figure out what will happen in the future, and finding ways to take advantage of it. Even if it doesn’t occur exactly as you expect, the process will pay off.”
“But my plan obviously had some major defects in it, Helen, or I wouldn’t be in the predicament. It may not be worth the time to redo my plan, my business model. Maybe I should just spend more on marketing and find new clients.”
She nodded, and started, “That could be flushing away good money in areas that won’t pay off. Take time for planning. Don’t take my word for it. How about President Dwight Eisenhower. When he was the supreme allied commander in Europe during World War 2, General Dwight Eisenhower? He is famous for saying, ‘In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.’ In other words, once the battle begins, many of the assumptions the plans are based on will be wrong. However, During the planning process, participants are forced to think about many different scenarios, they are able to make excellent decisions when the situation changes.”
“Okay, okay, okay,” Walt conceded with a smile. “I was planning to do it anyway. I just wanted to hear what else you had to say. So once I update my business plan, what else to I have to do to validate it?” was Walt’s next question.
“Validating your business model is bringing together your knowledge, your products, your customers and their buying habits, and the niche of the economy you have chosen as your market. Putting them all together, you need to ask the question, do they still make sense today?”
“What are my choices if the model doesn’t make sense today?”
Looking straight at him, Helen explained, “Then make some changes. If your current clients are not buying what you are selling, then you can determine what they will buy. Remember, the easiest clients to sell to are people who have already bought from you. The next option is to find new clients for your current offering of products. If that doesn’t work, then you need to find new products AND new clients. The rest of the model is how to actually accomplish all this and make money.
“But if they aren’t ready to buy what I sell now, what makes you think they will buy anything else,” Walt questioned. “Many of the ones I’ve talked to seem to have tightened their wallets so much, they won’t be able to buy for quite a while.”
“Even in times of recession, people and companies still need to buy things to be productive. If your old products are not longer in demand, what products are?”
“Well…..,” Walt started very slowly.
After a couple moments of silence, Helen continued, “Let’s take a look at what your clients needs. Write a few things down: What do your clients need now, whether you sell it or not.”
Walt thought of two key clients, picturing them in his mind. Then he thought of what they did, what their lives were like, and what products they probably still needed to keep going.
Watching him jot down a couple things, she now got him to focus a little more. “Now, write down a couple things they probably can use, and that you provide.”
Making a mental list of his company’s inventory, in a few minutes he was able to list a few more items on his paper.
“I guess you are right,” Walt admitted. “There still are things they probably will need, and I can supply them.”
“Good. Now that you’ve got a list, remember these are people who don’t know you. They may already have other vendors or have some other reason for not buying from you.”
“That’s true,” Walt said confidently. “I guess I’ll have to be a better salesman than ever before.”
“If that works, great. If not, then locate another road to go down: find new customers who still need your products, even in this economy.”
Walt noted that she did not share his enthusiasm about his sales ability, but he let that pass. “That sounds like a great idea, Helen. I’m an expert and have great products. Spending more on marketing could really get the word out.”
Helen’s tilted her head at that statement and asked, “Just who will you market to? What are the names of the people you are targeting.”
“I don’t know their names yet, of course. I’m just starting.”
“How will you get their names?”
“Let’s see now, I’ll just….” After a pause, Walt asserted, “I guess I’ll have to do some sort of mass marketing, targeting anyone that might be interested.”
“That sounds expensive.” Helen kept the heat on, “How are you going to pay for that.”
Walt’s face fell as the reality of the issue hit him, again. “It may not be such a great idea after all.”
“That’s why I want you to concentrate on old customers first. New customers are expensive to reach. They may be well worth it, especially if you can identify exactly who is willing to buy your product now. But mass marketing is a huge gamble at this point.”
“Then what is a good way to find new customers?”
Helen changed the subject. “Let’s put that aside for the moment. I want to go through a third option you should consider, as long as you are revisiting your business model. This one is the riskiest: Selling new products to new clients.”
“Well, I was thinking that this may be the time to start something new. I’ve got a couple of ideas that should be great”
Helen cocked an eyebrow at that comment. “Let’s see now, you are an expert in what you do, you’ve got clients that like you and your products, and you think it will be easier to sell something different to people who have never heard about you?”
Walt shook his head, as if shaking out cobwebs. “You have an interesting way of getting your point across, you know. I meant I was thinking of exploring a couple new things.”
Helen nodded. “I’ve known my share of people who made that decision, based on the same amount of information. These same people were astounded that they were out of business before too long, even in a good economy,” Helen explained.
Let’s look at the basics of your business model and the four different directions you can go. First, you can continue selling your products to the same customers. That has the highest chance of success. In that case, you only need to tweak your business model for today’s realities.”
“Okay, Option A.” Walt was writing it down.
“A bit more risky is trying to sell new products to your current customers. They know you but may not want to buy those products from you.”
“Option B,” Walt said, scribbling notes. “What is option C?”
“You already know your products well, and what customers want with them. So you can use that reputation and try to find new customers. New customers can be expensive to recruit, so the main risk is in money spent trying to reach them.”
“Got it.” Glancing up as he continued to write, “And next?”
“Most risky of all is selling new products to new clients.”
“If that’s the most risky, why would I even consider it?” Walt demanded.
“Because to possible rewards might make the risk well worth it. For instance, ten to twenty years ago, if you were selling desks to offices that had a lot of staff, you could make a pretty good living. Each person working in an office needed some sort of desk, from executive to stenographer.
“As people reduced spending on desks due to economic changes, you could still go to the same clients who trusted you before and offer discounts and other incentives to continue to getting their business. ”
Walt interjected, “Like wooing your clients, huh?”
“That’s right. A second choice would be to go to the same customers and convince them to buy cubicles, a new technology, to save space and money. They would certainly listen to you because they know and trust you.”
“Selling new products to the same customers,” nodded Walt.
“A third option is to branch out to smaller offices. As an expert with years in the desk industry, you could take a quick look at the layout and tell them exactly what they could use that would be efficient and cost effective.”
“Selling same products to new customers,” Walt observed.
“The fourth, and riskiest option would be to try to sell cubicles to small offices. While possible to convince them to change to cubicles, the cost efficiencies would not be there and it would be a very rough sell.”
“That’s for sure. I’d be out of business pretty soon if I tried to sell those new products to new customers. Not much reward in that story,” Walt concluded.
Helen shook her head, “Unless you saw that the world was downsizing. If you saw small businesses moving rapidly to computers, you could provide computer desks with printer shelves, allowing small businesses to downsize and save a lot of money on office rent. Then you could do very well, indeed.”
“Okay, I see your point. Only if I see a great opportunity should I try to sell new products to new clients.”
“That’s right. And that is the purpose of reexamining your business model: Does it still make sense?”
“Yes,” he said, “And only change what needs to be changed.”
“Just keep in mind the main object of looking at your business model is NOT to make changes. The main reason is to simply take a fresh look at your business.”
“But if I see new opportunities?”
“You don’t want to jump at new opportunities. New opportunities are usually much harder to than they initially appear. What you want to do is take a slow, hard look at how you can make your business model better. Keep your eyes open, but your reactions slow.”
“Walt, let’s meet at the same time next week. I’ve got to run to my other appointment now, but here are steps I use to look at my business model on a regular basis,” and Helen handed him a sheet of paper as she picked up her bag to leave.
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8 Steps to Validate Your Business Model
1. Accurately assess your current business. What are you selling? Who is buying. Does it still make sense in today’s conditions?
2. What is working? (This step is very important)
3. What is not working? Would minor changes fix these issues?
4. Will your customers continue to buy your products for the foreseeable future? If not, what would they buy?
5. Are there other high potential customers who need your products? Are they relatively easy to reach, like low hanging fruit?
6. Talk to your customers. Confirm your answers to the above questions.
7. Are there new opportunities you should be taking advantage of? List as many as you can. Then analyze how easy it would be to get new products to new customers.
8. Make a decision of how your business should operate moving forward from here,then make it work!